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Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations in situations where classical statistical analysis is difficult or impossible. This book discusses the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgment and uncertainty propagation.

• Sales Rank: #581680 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Cambridge University Press
• Published on: 2001-04-30
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.72" h x .94" w x 6.85" l, 2.10 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 414 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Review
"This is a valuable reference book for engineers, researchers and Ph.D. students...The book is fresh, neat, and comprehensive. I highly recommend it." Risk Decision and Policy

"...an excellent basis for an undergraduate course, well equipped with a wealth of real-life examples and exercises. Practitioners and decision makers will also benefit...The text can be recommended as an important contribution to bridge the gap between those working in mathematical reliability, who are looking for real-life examples, and those in eonomic risk analysis, who are looking for a readable treatment of the foundational concepts." JASA

About the Author
ROGER COOKE, PHD, is Williams Professor of Mathematics, University of Vermont, and has served as an associate editor of Historia Mathematica. Dr. Cooke has authored other key titles in the field as well as translated several books by Russian mathematicians into English.

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
too mathematical
By math_guy51
I would expect most of the audience for a book like this would not be Mathematicians ... the book is very good and elegant but difficult to follow for an Engineer. I'd recommend the book by Rausand as more suitable for first learning about Reliability before embarking on this textSystem Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications, 2nd Edition (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics)

3 of 21 people found the following review helpful.
I recommend!
By Raymundo J. S. Torres
A very clear text, what is not usual in this kind of book.

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The Definitive Guide to Strategic Asset Allocation Uniting theory and practice--the art and science of asset allocation

Investors long to beat the market, and money managers accept that as their mandate. The sad reality is that most money managers underperform the market, and individual investors do even worse. Investors also face emotional challenges. The irrational exuberance of the 1990s, for instance, can as easily derail a sensible investment strategy as the market panic accompanying the Global Financial Crisis.

Since Roger Gibson wrote the first edition of this book over 25 years ago, his multiple-assetclass investment approach has given investors a disciplined strategy for mitigating risks and realizing their financial goals through widely varying market environments.

Grounded in the principles of modern portfolio theory, this fi fth edition of his investing classic explains how and why asset allocation works. Gibson demonstrates how adding new asset classes to a portfolio improves its risk-adjusted returns and how strategic asset allocation uses, rather than fights, the forces of the capital markets to achieve fi nancial success.

New topics in this edition include:

• The success of multiple-asset-class investing during the stock market's "lost decade"
• Methods for forecasting long-term asset class returns and the limitations of prediction
• The dangers of market timing and the challenges involved in tactical asset allocation strategies--with insights from the field of behavioral finance
• Observations from the Global SIDONI Financial Crisis of 2008 and what it means for the multiple-asset-class investor

With more than three decades of experience managing clients' portfolios and expectations, Gibson underscores the importance of identifying and working through the emotional and psychological traps that impede investment success.

Join the quarter-century trend of Asset Allocation providing investors with a sound approach to financial well-being.

PRAISE FOR ASSET ALLOCATION:

"Roger Gibson has revolutionized the way financial advisors assemble portfolios for their clients. He is, without a doubt, the best and most articulate voice on the subject of asset allocation today." -- DON PHILLIPS, President, Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

"[Gibson's book] should be of enormous benefit to the investor seeking the proper decision-making process. I congratulate [him] for treating the asset allocation subject in such depth and bringing this issue, which is the critical investment issue for all investors, to the forefront. It is the best overall piece of work I have seen." -- GARY P. BRINSON, President and CEO, GP Brinson Investments

"I always look forward to each new edition of Roger Gibson's (now with Christopher Sidoni) asset allocation book. The extensive data is updated with new chapters on the financial crisis and forecasting. This practical book focuses on meeting investor objectives in a risky world." -- ROGER G. IBBOTSON, Yale Professor, Chairman of Zebra Capital Management, Founder of Ibbotson Associates, now a Morningstar Company

"Roger Gibson's book should be a 'go-to' resource for every serious financial advisor." -- JOHN D. ROGERS, CFA, President and Chief Executive Officer, CFA Institute

"The author balances a solid, understandable, and logical grasp of investment knowledge with an obvious input of practical experience. If all investment advisors would read and understand this book, clients would be far better off." -- DARWIN M. BAYSTON, CFA, Past President and CEO, The Association for Investment Management Research

• Sales Rank: #349676 in Books
• Brand: Brand: McGraw-Hill
• Published on: 2013-05-21
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.60" w x 5.80" l, 1.70 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 448 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author

ROGER C. GIBSON, CFA, is chief investment officer of Gibson Capital, LLC (www.gibsoncapital.com), which advises high net worth individuals and institutional clients nationwide. An internationally recognized expert in asset allocation and investment portfolio design, he lives with his wife and business partner, Brenda, in a pre-Civil war farmhouse north of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

CHRISTOPHER J. SIDONI, CFA, CFP, is the director of investment research and a member of Gibson Capital, LLC. In addition to managing client relationships and directing the firm's research efforts, he speaks to professional audiences on the topics of asset allocation, portfolio design, and investor behavior.

Most helpful customer reviews

15 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
Smart investors will allocate some time to this book
By Eric Sedensky
This is a great book on investing. Coming off reading Risk-Return Analysis: The Theory and Practice of Rational Investing (Volume One), a weighty, math-heavy volume written by a Nobel laureate (Harry Markowitz), I was pleased to find Asset Allocation provided a lot of the same take on portfolio balancing and limiting risk without overburdening the reader with formulas and minutiae. This book instead explores historical trends using hypothetical portfolios and critical analysis of the performance of various asset classes during up, down, and sideways markets. At the heart is a strategy of diversification, rebalancing, and risk avoidance which individual investors and investment advisers (more on them in a second) can put to work in their personal and client portfolios.

Like the Markowitz book, the crux of Gibson's investment strategy is that more risk can result in better returns, but less risk does not necessarily result in reduced returns. Ultimately, the determination of risk, the potential value it represents, and the investor's ability to endure the risk during different types of market trends will determine the success (or failure) of a given portfolio's asset mix. Once this groundwork is laid, Gibson then provides some perspective on analyzing a client's risk tendencies and preferences, ideal asset mixes, and overall performance aspects of various types of securities and investments, ultimately to help in constructing a portfolio the client will be happy with. If you are not a investment planner or CFA with paying customers, the last third of the book will likely not be of much value to you. Reading through it, however, might provide you with some insight into your own investment preferences. (As a long time investor, I didn't find it particularly useful.)

There is a lot of viable and actionable information here, and the detailed discussion of risk and portfolio construction in the first two-thirds of the book is (I think) quite original and much easier to implement than a lot of other strategies I've seen in investment books. For typical investors who are not advising others, the last third of the book has limited benefit, but even with that, the first part of the book makes it well worth a full five stars.

16 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
optimize your portfolio
By W. McReynolds
Seems this book is targeted to financial planners. That might explain the high price tag. Originally listed at about $37 then jumped to nearly $50 before falling to $42 and slowly creeping up in price. Finally gets to the efficient frontier tools and then just barely mentions the tool used for the examples. No references that I could find as to how to acquire this tool. Not quite done reading it. I expected more focus on how to minimize the "black swan" events. No such luck. Had to go to "journal of financial planning" for current thinking on that topic. Basically, I think this book is priced too high for what you get.

4 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent book to learn the basics of finance
By JannaB
I asked five financially-wise friends and investment folks what book they'd recommend I read to kick start my resolution to become financially savy. This book was suggested more than any others. Now, I know why! It's informative and even interesting for someone like me, a newbie to the subject, to read.

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The fields of cookery and medieval food continue to draw the attention of those interested in a panoramic picture of aristocratic and bourgeois social life in the late Middle Ages. In the fifteenth century, wealthy courts in the Italian peninsula led all of Europe in gastronomical achievement. The professional cooks in the service of the Este, Medici, and Borgia families were the most advanced masters of their craft, and some of them bequeathed a record of their practice in manuscript collections of recipes.
Outstanding among these early cookbooks is the one written by an anonymous master cook in Naples toward the end of the century. In its 220 recipes, one can trace not only the Italian culinary practice of the day but also the very refined taste brought by the Catalan royal family when they ruled Naples. This edition—with Terence Scully’s introduction touching on the nature of cookery in the Neapolitano Collection, and English translation of and commentary on the recipes—will give the reader a glimpse into the rich fare available to occupants and guests of one of the greatest houses of late medieval Italy.
The Neapolitan Recipe Collection offers a particularly delicious slice of the primary documentation necessary for understanding the nature of medieval society and one of its most important aspects.

• Sales Rank: #2736876 in Books
• Published on: 2015-01-12
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 10.00" h x .80" w x 7.00" l, .0 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 264 pages

About the Author
Terence Scully is Professor Emeritus of French, Wilfrid Laurier University, and the author, with D. Eleanor Scully, of Early French Cookery (University of Michigan Press, 1996).

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• Sales Rank: #16297799 in Books
• Published on: 1969
• Binding: Unknown Binding
• 285 pages

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• Published on: 1800
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Miguel has dreamed of joining his parents in California since the day they left him behind in Mexico six years, eleven months, and twelve days ago. On the morning of his fifteenth birthday, Miguel's wait is over.
Or so he thinks. The trip north to the border―la línea―is fraught with dangers. Thieves. Border guards. And a grueling, two-day trek across the desert. It would be hard enough to survive alone. But it's almost impossible with his tagalong sister in tow.
Their money gone and their hopes nearly dashed, Miguel and his sister have no choice but to hop the infamous mata gente as it races toward the border. As they cling to the roof of the speeding train, they hold onto each other, and to their dreams. But they quickly learn that you can't always count on dreams―even the ones that come true.

Latino Interest.

• Sales Rank: #62912 in Books
• Brand: Square Fish
• Published on: 2008-07-22
• Released on: 2008-07-22
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.20" h x .45" w x 5.55" l, .32 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 144 pages

From School Library Journal
Grade 5 Up-Six years ago, Miguel and Elena's mother and father left Mexico and crossed la línea into California. On the morning of Miguel's 15th birthday, he receives a note from his father telling him that it is time for him to join them. Miguel is sad to leave his grandmother and sister behind, but is excited about being reunited with his parents. Unbeknownst to Miguel, Elena, 13, disguises herself and joins him on the difficult journey. They are robbed, threatened, and almost perish in a desperate trek across the desert. The pacing of the plot is quick and driven, and the characters are realistically drawn. They interact as true siblings do, sometimes with love and sometimes not. Cultural and geographical background information is expertly woven into the novel. The author creates a mood of desperation and anxiety as the story unfolds and Miguel and Elena discover that crossing la línea will forever change the way they look at themselves and the world. Although the epilogue illuminates their lives as adults, the novel ends abruptly, leaving readers without the anticipated emotional release of their reunion with their parents.-Melissa Christy Buron, Epps Island Elementary, Houston, TX
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Booklist
*Starred Review* Gr. 5-8. When Miguel, 15, leaves San Jacinto, Mexico, to join his parents in California, his sister, Elena, 13, secretly follows him. Together with their guides they barely survive a harrowing journey through the desert and across la linea, the border. A gripping contemporary survival adventure, this spare first novel is also a heart-wrenching family story of courage, betrayal, and love. The harsh facts of the border crossing are immediate--the horrors of dehydration, the soldiers' violence, corruption, and the migrants' terrifying, often disastrous attempts to hop the trains. Miguel's first-person narrative tells it without romanticism. The young people are brave, but they are angry at each other and at their parents, who left them seven years before. They do make it, but always there is the reality of those who do not. Jaramillo teaches migrant kids in California, and in her final notes, she says her story is fiction, but it is based on real events. Spanish is a natural part of the text; there is no glossary, and no need for one. Add this to the list of books in the Core Collection: "The New Immigration Story" in the August 2005 issue of Booklist. Hazel Rochman
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

Review

“A gripping contemporary survival adventure, this spare first novel is also a heart-wrenching family story of courage, betrayal, and love.” ―Booklist, Starred Review

“Jaramillo's first novel is convincing and effective.” ―The Horn Book Magazine

“A nail-biting real-life adventure.” ―Kirkus Reviews

“This well-written account of the perils of illegal border crossing would make a worthwhile read for students studying history, geography, or cultures and is a solid recommendation for both school and public libraries.” ―Voices of Youth Advocates

“The author creates a mood of desperation and anxiety as the story unfolds and Miguel and Elena discover that crossing la línea will forever change the way they look at themselves and the world.” ―School Library Journal

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